Research & Simulation
Simulations and scenario analysis
Simulations show how uncertain inputs translate into a range of possible outcomes. The results describe your assumptions — they are not forecasts and do not use market data.
Investment scenario simulation (Monte Carlo)
Enter a starting amount, regular annual contributions, an expected annual return and its volatility. The simulation draws thousands of possible return paths and reports the range of ending values as percentiles.
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Method and assumptions
- Annual returns are drawn independently from a lognormal distribution whose arithmetic mean and standard deviation match your inputs.
- Each year: value = (previous value + contribution at the start of the year) × (1 + return). Contributions are made at the start of each year.
- Inflation, taxes, fees and changing contributions are not modelled. Real-world returns are not independent from year to year and can have fatter tails than this model assumes.
- A fixed random seed makes results reproducible; change the seed to see sampling variation.
Scenario tools
Deterministic scenario analysis: change one assumption at a time and compare the results.
Loan scenarios
Loan Amortization
See each payment split between principal and interest, with the balance declining to zero.
Extra Payment
See how recurring extra principal payments may reduce interest and shorten payoff.
Loan Refinancing
Compare the remaining monthly cost of an existing loan with a new loan and upfront fees.
Savings, retirement and inflation forecasts
Future Value of an Annuity
Estimate the future value of equal deposits made at the end of each payment period.
Retirement Planning
Project retirement savings in nominal terms and in today’s purchasing power, with an optional income target comparison.
Inflation-Adjusted Savings
Compare future nominal savings with their estimated purchasing power in today’s money.
Business valuation and financing
Net Present Value (NPV)
Discount end-of-period cash flows and subtract the time-zero investment.
WACC
Combine market-value capital weights and component financing costs.
EBIT–EPS Analysis
Compare EPS under two financing plans across a user-selected EBIT range.